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Alan Auerbach Recommends Action on Long-Term Deficits

-Investor’s Business Daily, July 19, 2010 by Jed Graham
http://bit.ly/bTznlV

Alan Auerbach argues that debt levels are still manageable enough that it makes sense to give the economy more running room to solidify the recovery before embracing austerity. “I think the best strategy—which is not one that is politically likely—is to not worry so much about the short-term debt accumulation, but to take very forceful action” to address long-term deficits tied to health care spending and Social Security,” Auerbach said.

-The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics Blog, July 24, 2010 by Mark Whitehouse
http://bit.ly/dbCMvG

Messrs. Auerbach and Gale estimate that the government needs to increase tax revenues or cut spending by as much as 9% of economic output to put its finances on a sustainable trajectory.

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Alan Auerbach Predicts Fiscal Crisis Unless Reforms Enacted

ABC Radio, PM (Australia), June 21, 2010 Host Mark Colvin
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s2932964.htm

The problem is that the economies in the US and Europe are so weak as a result of the recession and there’s a general view among economists that withdrawing stimulus could be dangerous…. The best of all possible worlds would be to maintain fiscal stimulus in the short run while simultaneously making credible policy actions now that will make fiscal adjustments occur in the not-too-distant future.

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Alan Auerbach Says Capital Gains Tax Cut Won’t Foster Job Growth

San Francisco Chronicle, May 20, 2010 by Joe Garofoli and Carla Marinucci
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/05/20/MNN71DHGPO.DTL

A capital gains tax cut might stimulate the economy (with investors selling assets) but wouldn’t necessarily stimulate job growth, said Alan Auerbach, professor of economics and law at UC Berkeley.

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Alan Auerbach Explains Temptation of Variable Mortgages

KTVU-TV, May 5, 2010 by Tori Campbell
http://www.ktvu.com/news/23469913/detail.html

“It may be an issue of trying not to live beyond your means, there may also be an issue of not understanding,” said Alan Auerbach…. “It may be in this case the products that were being sold and the people who were purchasing it were less sophisticated than the people who were selling them.”

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Alan Auerbach Applauds the Revised Economic Journal Review Process

Inside Higher Ed, April 21, 2010 by Scott Jaschik
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2010/04/21/econ

“Everyone in the field knows that there are a handful of journals that everyone uses,” he said, so no one would be offended by receiving a rejected paper from AER. “We are in the same association and don’t view ourselves as directly competing, so we thought that this kind of interaction would be in everybody’s interest,” he said. “It reduces the redundancy of review efforts and the turnaround time.”

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Alan Auerbach Questions Value of Capital Gains Tax Cuts

The Sacramento Bee, April 19, 2010 by Kevin Yamamura
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/04/19/2688057/capital-gains-tax-cuts-turns-into.html

“You might get back as much as half the revenue you lose, but I could also argue that you would get back less than that,” Auerbach said. “There is uncertainty over how much you get back, but there is not any convincing evidence you will get it all back.”

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Alan Auerbach Doubts That Tax Cuts Would Boost State Revenue

KQED-FM, The California Report, April 14, 2010 by John Myers
http://www.californiareport.org/archive/R201004140850/a

While we do think that taxpayers both in households and businesses respond to tax cuts, we generally don’t think that the response is strong enough to provide this kind of complete offset.

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Alan Auerbach Warns of Impending Deficit Crisis

San Francisco Chronicle, April 5, 2010 by Carolyn Lochhead
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/04/05/MNI21COVR1.DTL&type=printable

“The real problem is not just current deficits but where we’re heading,” Auerbach said. “We’re on a trajectory where the deficit’s going to go down a little and then go up again. And we have no solution for that.”

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Alan Auerbach Questions Green-Tech Business Tax Breaks

Los Angeles Times, March 27, 2010 by Shane Goldmacher
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-tax-breaks27-2010mar27,0,4624330.story

“If you’re guessing wrong about the scope of the credit and it turns out it applies to a lot more investments than you thought . . . you may end up losing a lot of money,” said Auerbach, the Berkeley economist.

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Alan Auerbach Lauds Janet Yellen’s Nomination to Federal Reserve

San Francisco Chronicle, March 13, 2010 by Carolyn Said and Tom Abate
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/03/13/MN5E1CF0A0.DTL&type=printable

“One of the concerns whenever an academic is appointed is, ‘Does this person know anything about how the world operates?’” said Alan Auerbach. “In Janet Yellen’s case, that’s not much of a concern given how involved she’s been in Washington over the years. It’s hard to imagine a better appointment.”

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Alan Auerbach Argues Against “Inflating Away Debt”

The New York Times, Economix Blog, February 18, 2010 by Catherine Rampell
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/18/inflation-wont-solve-our-debt-problems/

Sudden inflation can only inflate away the debt that is (1) not indexed, the way TIPS are; and (2) not very short term (i.e., not T-bills), so that the interest rates cannot be reset to much higher rates that would compensate for inflation.  Also, there is no net gain to inflating away debt held within the government (e.g., the Social Security trust fund, etc.).

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Alan Auerbach Warns of Ballooning Federal Deficit

The Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2010 by Mark Whitehouse
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126255761275914079.html#printMode (requires registration; go to G:\Law School in the News\News Clips for article)

“We’ve moved closer to the precipice, and the precipice has moved closer to us,” Alan Auerbach, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley who has focused on U.S. government finances for about 15 years, said in an interview.

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Alan Auerbach Notes Pitfalls of Value-Added Tax on Goods and Services

The New York Times, December 11, 2009 by Catherine Rampell
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/11/business/11vat.html?_r=1

“What really is the difference between prepared food versus nonprepared food?” said Alan J. Auerbach…. “You start having to split hairs, and that can become quite complicated.”

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Alan Auerbach Signs Letter in Support of Senate Health Care Bill

San Francisco Chronicle, November 30, 2009 by Carolyn Lochhead
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/11/30/MNHS1AQDKV.DTL&type=printable

Auerbach said one reason he signed the letter was his “fear that as timid as the Senate bill might be, it goes much more in the right direction than the House bill does. They could certainly do more, but my fear is they’ll do less. Simply expanding coverage when none of these even attempt to reduce costs would be very unfortunate.”

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Alan Auerbach Thinks Tax Increases Alone Won’t Solve Budget Shortfall

San Francisco Chronicle, November 22, 2009 by Wyatt Buchanan
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/11/22/MN2V1AO1D2.DTL&type=printable

UC Berkeley professor of economics and law Alan Auerbach said extending the tax increases is an obvious place for lawmakers to look for a solution. “But that is only part of the solution. Where the rest of it comes from who knows?” said Auerbach…. He predicted the Legislature would “muddle through” the problem with spending cuts and tax increases.

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Alan Auerbach Links Rise in Social Security Claims to Recession

The New York Times, September 28, 2009 by Stephen Ohlemacher
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/09/28/us/politics/AP-US-Social-Security-Early-Retirements.html?_r=2

”A lot of people who in better times would have continued working are opting to retire,” said Alan J. Auerbach, an economics and law professor at the University of California, Berkeley. ”If they were younger, we would call them unemployed.”

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Alan Auerbach Supports a Gas Tax

SF Weekly, September 14, 2009 by Matt Smith
http://www.sfweekly.com/2009-09-16/news/obama-s-stimulus-money-will-increase-traffic-but-not-bridge-safety/

Economists disagree on many things, but not on the wisdom of raising the gas tax. “Given all the problems associated with gasoline consumption—congestion, global warming, national security, pollution, damage to roads—a sufficient tax on this activity is the most efficient way to cause people to take these costs into account,” said Alan Auerbach.

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Alan Auerbach Points Out Actions Needed to Reduce Deficit

CNN Money, September 9, 2009 by Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/08/news/economy/fiscal_gap/?postversion=2009090819

While strong action is needed on health care, it cannot be sufficient, or even close to sufficient, to bring the nation’s books into balance. Significant further tax increases or spending cuts will need to be considered.

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Alan Auerbach Says Unemployment Benefits Add to Economic Stimulus

USA Today, September 3, 2009 by Tamara Lush
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2009-09-03-unemployment-benefits-running-out_N.htm

Unemployment benefits play an important part in stabilizing the economy because recipients tend to spend their weekly checks, rather than saving the money or paying down debt. “It’s definitely a valuable component of economic stimulus,” said Alan Auerbach, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley.

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Alan Auerbach Supports Health Care Reform, But with Cost Controls

Los Angeles Times, August 26, 2009 by David Lazarus
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-lazarus26-2009aug26,0,6090427,print.column

“I have problems with the way this whole reform thing is going,” said Alan Auerbach…. “I’d like to see a more explicit explanation of ways that medical costs are going to be controlled, and I’d like to see a more comprehensive way of paying for it. But if we don’t do anything at all, we’re clearly going to be worse off. The problems just get bigger if you don’t do anything.”

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In the News



Alan Auerbach Recommends Action on Long-Term Deficits

-Investor’s Business Daily, July 19, 2010 by Jed Graham
http://bit.ly/bTznlV

Alan Auerbach argues that debt levels are still manageable enough that it makes sense to give the economy more running room to solidify the recovery before embracing austerity. “I think the best strategy—which is not one that is politically likely—is to not worry so much about the short-term debt accumulation, but to take very forceful action” to address long-term deficits tied to health care spending and Social Security,” Auerbach said.

-The Wall Street Journal, Real Time Economics Blog, July 24, 2010 by Mark Whitehouse
http://bit.ly/dbCMvG

Messrs. Auerbach and Gale estimate that the government needs to increase tax revenues or cut spending by as much as 9% of economic output to put its finances on a sustainable trajectory.


Alan Auerbach Predicts Fiscal Crisis Unless Reforms Enacted

ABC Radio, PM (Australia), June 21, 2010 Host Mark Colvin
http://www.abc.net.au/pm/content/2010/s2932964.htm

The problem is that the economies in the US and Europe are so weak as a result of the recession and there’s a general view among economists that withdrawing stimulus could be dangerous…. The best of all possible worlds would be to maintain fiscal stimulus in the short run while simultaneously making credible policy actions now that will make fiscal adjustments occur in the not-too-distant future.


Alan Auerbach Says Capital Gains Tax Cut Won’t Foster Job Growth

San Francisco Chronicle, May 20, 2010 by Joe Garofoli and Carla Marinucci
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/05/20/MNN71DHGPO.DTL

A capital gains tax cut might stimulate the economy (with investors selling assets) but wouldn’t necessarily stimulate job growth, said Alan Auerbach, professor of economics and law at UC Berkeley.


Alan Auerbach Explains Temptation of Variable Mortgages

KTVU-TV, May 5, 2010 by Tori Campbell
http://www.ktvu.com/news/23469913/detail.html

“It may be an issue of trying not to live beyond your means, there may also be an issue of not understanding,” said Alan Auerbach…. “It may be in this case the products that were being sold and the people who were purchasing it were less sophisticated than the people who were selling them.”


Alan Auerbach Applauds the Revised Economic Journal Review Process

Inside Higher Ed, April 21, 2010 by Scott Jaschik
http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2010/04/21/econ

“Everyone in the field knows that there are a handful of journals that everyone uses,” he said, so no one would be offended by receiving a rejected paper from AER. “We are in the same association and don’t view ourselves as directly competing, so we thought that this kind of interaction would be in everybody’s interest,” he said. “It reduces the redundancy of review efforts and the turnaround time.”


Alan Auerbach Questions Value of Capital Gains Tax Cuts

The Sacramento Bee, April 19, 2010 by Kevin Yamamura
http://www.sacbee.com/2010/04/19/2688057/capital-gains-tax-cuts-turns-into.html

“You might get back as much as half the revenue you lose, but I could also argue that you would get back less than that,” Auerbach said. “There is uncertainty over how much you get back, but there is not any convincing evidence you will get it all back.”


Alan Auerbach Doubts That Tax Cuts Would Boost State Revenue

KQED-FM, The California Report, April 14, 2010 by John Myers
http://www.californiareport.org/archive/R201004140850/a

While we do think that taxpayers both in households and businesses respond to tax cuts, we generally don’t think that the response is strong enough to provide this kind of complete offset.


Alan Auerbach Warns of Impending Deficit Crisis

San Francisco Chronicle, April 5, 2010 by Carolyn Lochhead
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/04/05/MNI21COVR1.DTL&type=printable

“The real problem is not just current deficits but where we’re heading,” Auerbach said. “We’re on a trajectory where the deficit’s going to go down a little and then go up again. And we have no solution for that.”


Alan Auerbach Questions Green-Tech Business Tax Breaks

Los Angeles Times, March 27, 2010 by Shane Goldmacher
http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-tax-breaks27-2010mar27,0,4624330.story

“If you’re guessing wrong about the scope of the credit and it turns out it applies to a lot more investments than you thought . . . you may end up losing a lot of money,” said Auerbach, the Berkeley economist.


Alan Auerbach Lauds Janet Yellen’s Nomination to Federal Reserve

San Francisco Chronicle, March 13, 2010 by Carolyn Said and Tom Abate
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2010/03/13/MN5E1CF0A0.DTL&type=printable

“One of the concerns whenever an academic is appointed is, ‘Does this person know anything about how the world operates?’” said Alan Auerbach. “In Janet Yellen’s case, that’s not much of a concern given how involved she’s been in Washington over the years. It’s hard to imagine a better appointment.”


Alan Auerbach Argues Against “Inflating Away Debt”

The New York Times, Economix Blog, February 18, 2010 by Catherine Rampell
http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/18/inflation-wont-solve-our-debt-problems/

Sudden inflation can only inflate away the debt that is (1) not indexed, the way TIPS are; and (2) not very short term (i.e., not T-bills), so that the interest rates cannot be reset to much higher rates that would compensate for inflation.  Also, there is no net gain to inflating away debt held within the government (e.g., the Social Security trust fund, etc.).


Alan Auerbach Warns of Ballooning Federal Deficit

The Wall Street Journal, January 5, 2010 by Mark Whitehouse
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB126255761275914079.html#printMode (requires registration; go to G:\Law School in the News\News Clips for article)

“We’ve moved closer to the precipice, and the precipice has moved closer to us,” Alan Auerbach, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley who has focused on U.S. government finances for about 15 years, said in an interview.


Alan Auerbach Notes Pitfalls of Value-Added Tax on Goods and Services

The New York Times, December 11, 2009 by Catherine Rampell
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/11/business/11vat.html?_r=1

“What really is the difference between prepared food versus nonprepared food?” said Alan J. Auerbach…. “You start having to split hairs, and that can become quite complicated.”


Alan Auerbach Signs Letter in Support of Senate Health Care Bill

San Francisco Chronicle, November 30, 2009 by Carolyn Lochhead
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/11/30/MNHS1AQDKV.DTL&type=printable

Auerbach said one reason he signed the letter was his “fear that as timid as the Senate bill might be, it goes much more in the right direction than the House bill does. They could certainly do more, but my fear is they’ll do less. Simply expanding coverage when none of these even attempt to reduce costs would be very unfortunate.”


Alan Auerbach Thinks Tax Increases Alone Won’t Solve Budget Shortfall

San Francisco Chronicle, November 22, 2009 by Wyatt Buchanan
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/11/22/MN2V1AO1D2.DTL&type=printable

UC Berkeley professor of economics and law Alan Auerbach said extending the tax increases is an obvious place for lawmakers to look for a solution. “But that is only part of the solution. Where the rest of it comes from who knows?” said Auerbach…. He predicted the Legislature would “muddle through” the problem with spending cuts and tax increases.


Alan Auerbach Links Rise in Social Security Claims to Recession

The New York Times, September 28, 2009 by Stephen Ohlemacher
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2009/09/28/us/politics/AP-US-Social-Security-Early-Retirements.html?_r=2

”A lot of people who in better times would have continued working are opting to retire,” said Alan J. Auerbach, an economics and law professor at the University of California, Berkeley. ”If they were younger, we would call them unemployed.”


Alan Auerbach Supports a Gas Tax

SF Weekly, September 14, 2009 by Matt Smith
http://www.sfweekly.com/2009-09-16/news/obama-s-stimulus-money-will-increase-traffic-but-not-bridge-safety/

Economists disagree on many things, but not on the wisdom of raising the gas tax. “Given all the problems associated with gasoline consumption—congestion, global warming, national security, pollution, damage to roads—a sufficient tax on this activity is the most efficient way to cause people to take these costs into account,” said Alan Auerbach.


Alan Auerbach Points Out Actions Needed to Reduce Deficit

CNN Money, September 9, 2009 by Alan J. Auerbach and William G. Gale
http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/08/news/economy/fiscal_gap/?postversion=2009090819

While strong action is needed on health care, it cannot be sufficient, or even close to sufficient, to bring the nation’s books into balance. Significant further tax increases or spending cuts will need to be considered.


Alan Auerbach Says Unemployment Benefits Add to Economic Stimulus

USA Today, September 3, 2009 by Tamara Lush
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/employment/2009-09-03-unemployment-benefits-running-out_N.htm

Unemployment benefits play an important part in stabilizing the economy because recipients tend to spend their weekly checks, rather than saving the money or paying down debt. “It’s definitely a valuable component of economic stimulus,” said Alan Auerbach, a professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley.


Alan Auerbach Supports Health Care Reform, But with Cost Controls

Los Angeles Times, August 26, 2009 by David Lazarus
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-lazarus26-2009aug26,0,6090427,print.column

“I have problems with the way this whole reform thing is going,” said Alan Auerbach…. “I’d like to see a more explicit explanation of ways that medical costs are going to be controlled, and I’d like to see a more comprehensive way of paying for it. But if we don’t do anything at all, we’re clearly going to be worse off. The problems just get bigger if you don’t do anything.”



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